Q: Using financial models, can actuaries predict future results? A: While models may appear to “predict” financial results, the modeling approach only “projects” future claims. The model is based on a review of the past experience data and its likely impact on the future. If past experience data is accurately collected, if assumptions are realized, if the model used is a correct reflection of reality, then the actuary can safely use this framework to make a forecast. Yet the future of anything cannot be predicted. Future financial risk cannot be eliminated. Actuaries project reasonable possible outcomes within a range of possibilities. Experience remains an essential guidepost.